At this time, I don’t know how many parts there will be to this “Seeing Things in a Different Light” series. I have at least a couple of more topics in mind; but we will see how it goes.
In today’s title I claim that Europe and the US are bankrupt. In fact I believe the entire industrialized world is bankrupt. What the industrialized world calls money is an illusion. The dollar, the Euro, The Yen and, etc., are worthless pieces of paper. The world is awash in so much debt it can never be paid back, without printing a world’s worth of more funny money. Am I an expert on this subject? Not hardly. I’m just an observer. So, let’s start by talking about Europe.
Europe is Bankrupt
When talking about Europe, we have to start by talking about Greece first. Greece is the bankruptcy poster child for the world. The Greeks have been living way beyond their means ever since they became part of the EU. Borrowing cheap money, their politicians led the Greek people into a socialist utopia and the Greeks took to it like fish to water. Then reality comes along and kicks the Geeks where it really hurts. The austerity measure that they need to implement are so Draconian to the Greeks that they refuse to accept them. The EU, which is pushing Greece to accept these Draconian austerity measures tried to help by forcing the banks that are holding most of the Greek debt to “voluntarily” accept a haircut. This “voluntary” hair cut was for the banks to forgive 50% of the Greek debt and accept a much lower interest rate on the remaining debt. The haircut is then effectively 70%. [ Side Note: As a capitalist, I should be appalled that the private banks should have to forgive a part the debt of the irresponsible Greek borrowers. But, I have no sympathy for theses banks. The bankers are not stupid, They knew full that Greece could never pay off their loans, But they kept lending because they were confident that the EU would never allow Greece to default. Well, reality can be brutal at times.] In spite of this “voluntary” gift by the banks, there is no way that Greece could implement all the necessary austerity programs and still grow their non-existent economy enough to pay off the remaining debt. So Greece will crash and burn. There will much worse riots. There will be bloodshed. The Greeks are going to HELL! And, the bankers will end up with a 100% haircut.
Is Greece really all that important to the EU? After all, it’s a tiny country and their total debt is peanuts really in the big picture of Europe. Greece is just the worst case of the debt cancer that infects much of Europe. It appears that Portugal will be the next country needing to be bailed-out. Italy, a much bigger economy, is a basket case. Spain is not much better. I read somewhere recently the unemployment rate for people 25 years of age and younger in Spain is over 40%. How scary is that?
So what can Europe do? Well, they have only one tool left. The “Paul Krugman Tool”. Yes, they will try stimulus on a major scale. They will put their printing presses in hyper-drive. The Euro will plummet. The immediate effect will be for the dollar to raise. Dollar based commodities will go up in price including oil. You are already seeing gasoline prices approaching $5.00- How much higher will it go? Your guess is as good as mine.
Is the US Also Bankrupt?
I believe it is. But then I have already admitted that I am no expert. Those who claim to be experts and our government would tell you we are not bankrupt. They would tell you that we are in recovery and the economy is growing and employment is increasing. Friends, I no longer believe anything our government and these experts tell us. Take employment for an example. The government in this election year is pumping out “good” news about employment every other day. But you go back and look at BLS data on the total number of people who were employed when Obama took office versus the total number of people who have jobs today. I think you will find that we have lost about six million jobs. Also, we are told that inflation is negligible. Do you find inflation negligible when you go shopping or fill the gas tank of your car?
On the outside chance that a real economic expert reads this post, I hope they will respond to a couple of questions I have:
- The Keynesian economist are laughing at the Austrian economist. The Austrian economist say that when governments stimulate, inflation will follow. The Keynesians are laughing and saying: Look! There was about three trillion of stimulus put into the economy and there has been no inflation. Okay, but we are also told the banks are sitting on two trillion dollars and that the private sector is sitting on another trillion dollars. My question is this: if these three trillion dollars should start circulating through our economy, won’t that bring on some serious inflation?
- In my opinion, the principal reason that the United States has not already crashed and burned is that our dollar is still the international reserve currency. Our bonds are still the only save place for central banks and investors to park their money. The US is, therefore, able to still borrow money at very low interest rates. The holders of these bonds are actually losing money when inflation is taken into account. So, I have a “what if” question that I would like an expert to respond to. What if one or more or even all of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and, China) were to decide to back their currency with gold or a basket of valuable commodities? The Western economies, including the US, would collapse, wouldn’t they?
Well, let’s try to simplify this discussion on whether or not the US is bankrupt. The United States is currently more than $15 trillion in debt. By the end of this fiscal year, we will be close to $17 trillion in debt. For the forseeable future, our debt will continue to grow. There is no way in hell that future generations are going to be able to pay off our debt. And, what about the $100 trillion in unfunded entitlements? There is no way in hell that future generations can pay for that.
Does anyone believe we can borrow are way out of this crisis? You tell me if the US is bankrupt or not. We are told that the Republicans need to nominate a moderate in order to attract the independent voters and defeat Obama. We are told we can not turn our government around in one election cycle. We are told it will take three or four or more election cycles to save our country. Friends, I don’t think reality is going to cooperate for three or four or more election cycles. Do you?
Well, that’s what I’m thinking. What are your thoughts?
loopyloo305
February 9, 2012
I don’t know how we can keep doing the same thing over and over again without failing.
Conservatives on Fire
February 9, 2012
The best answer I can come up wit, Patricia, is that if people don’t want to see something; they won’t.
Pat
February 9, 2012
At my blog yesterday I wrote a post called, “You Have To Earn It First”. That’s the thing I think Leftists forget. “Let’s pass out the goodies!” But the government has only the money it takes from the private sector. When it takes too much and begins hurting the private sector by sucking out capital and mis-allocating it, as well as placing expensive regulatory burdens on it, the government harms the ability of the private sector to pay the taxes that provide the revenues for the goodies the politicians love to pass out. It’s that simple. Greece is bankrupt because its private economy can’t support the government spending. How can it possibly be difficult for Leftists to understand this simple concept? The saying I’ve heard attributed to many different people (Reagan and Thatcher most often) is: “The problem with socialism is that sooner or later you run out of other people’s money.” All the government has is other people’s money. It’s as simple as this: When government spending begins harming the private economy, or placing too large a burden on it (such as the debt, which is a promise by the government that the private economy will produce enough that the tax receipts will enable the government to pay the bond holders), everything will collapse. To go Zen on the subject: Rocks are hard, water is wet, and too much government strangles economies.
Conservatives on Fire
February 9, 2012
What is weighing on me, Pat, is that if our government started doing everything right, starting today, it’s too late. The austerity measure that would have to be adopted in order to pay down our debt would be viewed the same way as the Greeks. They would be seen a Draconian and the people would not accept them.
republican mother
February 9, 2012
The name of the game is the end of any pretense of real money. Leftists aren’t about doling out goodies as much as they are getting complete government control of an economy. Doling out goodies is how they get the public to go along with it.
The question is, who gains by all this?
Someone has to be. I don’t understand why everyone isn’t talking about what Quigley said about the Bank of International Settlements and the “new feudalism”. It’s all going down just like he said it would. The endgame is a false currency controlled by a central authority. Prophecy buffs know all about this – the cashless society seems to be coming.
Conservatives on Fire
February 9, 2012
I have no doubt, rM, that the banksters will come out of this with theirs and a good part of ours.
bunkerville
February 9, 2012
Germany will rise once again. That will be the ultimate fallout for the nonsense that is going on. Greece rioters are burning the German flag, Says it all IMO.
Conservatives on Fire
February 9, 2012
Germany can raise again. So can the US, theoretically. I fear, however that it will take more time than i have left.
edge of the sandbox
February 9, 2012
In a short term. In a long term Germany is doomed for reasons of demography… and we are not doing any better.
The US needs to seriously restructure entitlements.
silverfiddle
February 9, 2012
Actually, demographically, we are doing great. It’s our economy that needs an enema, to get the state’s head out of our collective @$$es…
Conservatives on Fire
February 10, 2012
Demographically? I think I am missing your point, Kurt.
Infidel de Manahatta
February 10, 2012
Don’t worry. The U.S. won’t go bankrupt until the Republicans get in the White House and the press can stop covering for Obama. But as long as our dear sainted chosen leader is in office the press will dutifully report only good news.
Conservatives on Fire
February 10, 2012
The economic numbers and the news will be manipulated in Obama’s favor that is for sure-
Always On Watch
February 10, 2012
Some years ago, when conservatives pointed out how our national debt was growing, the Left said, “No big deal. We owe the money to ourselves.”
Maybe people still believe that lie and are, therefore, not concerned.
Conservatives on Fire
February 10, 2012
Yep! You might want to checkout the post I put up today.
John Scotus
February 10, 2012
People do what is easy and causes the least pain in the short-term, even if it kills them in the end. It is easy to live on credit and spend like there is no tomorrow, and by doing so governments avoid short-term pain. Virtue is when you take the hard way in order to avoid trouble later on, but virtue is often only learned after someone goes through a hard trial. The world is short of virtue nowadays, so hard trials are up ahead for many people.
Conservatives on Fire
February 11, 2012
I wish I could disagree with you, John, but I can’t. This coming election is so very important!