Debt Ceiling Debate __ It’s High Stakes Poker

And I am not talking about the risk of default on our natinal debt or who will or will not get paid if the debt ceiling isn’t raised. the stakes are Obama’s political future against the political future of the Republican Party. In this particular poker game, jokers are wild.

So how will or should each side play their cards? In terms of the facts about the economy and the negative impact of Obama’s policies and the polls, the Republicans are holding most of the Aces. But, Obama is holding the Jokers.

Obama has been using his bully pulpit to instill fear in the public that maybe some elderly (that’s me) won’t get their Social Security checks it the debt ceiling is not raised and/or that America will default on its debt obligations and as a result our credit rating would be cut and economic chaos would follow.

Those are certainly scary things to think about. But, would those things naturally follow if the debt ceiling isn’t raised? Or is Obama bluffing? Or is Obama telling us that those are the things he would do if the Republicans call his hand?

Let’s start by trying to answer the first question: if the debt ceiling is not raised,  would the government automatically default on its debt and have to reduce or eliminate Social Security payments?

Randall Hoven at American Thinker has done all of the hard work for us in his article Debt Ceiling: Worst-Case Scenario. No one is better at sifting through the governments numbers and organizing them in a way that we all can understand. This article is a MUST READ. Hoven proves beyond a shadow of a doubt tha Obama is lying (an unbreakable habit for our President).

Hoven uses the CBO’s analysis of the 2012 budget forecasts of spending as his guide. He lays out very clearly that thee government could pay its projected debt obligations, pay the 2012 projected cost for social Security and Medicare and continue to pay all of our military personnel and still have enough money to fund the rest of government at the same levels as were spent in fiscal year 2005. So, YOU ARE LYING, MR. PRESIDENT.

Now, funding the rest of government at 2005 levels means some serious cutting of costs. Hoven makes no claim that the cost reductions he has laid out are the prefered cuts; but only demonstrates that it can be done. here is a summary of what he believes is possible:

Federal Government Spending (millions of dollars)

Spending category	FY 2005 Actual	OMB’s 2012 estimate	A balanced 2012 budget
National Defense	495,308	737,537	495,308
International Affairs	34,565	63,001	8,974*
General Science, Space and Technology	23,597	32,284	23,584
Energy	429	23,411	0
Natural Resources and Environment	27,980	42,703	27,980
Agriculture	26,565	18,929	17,662
Commerce and Housing Credit	7,566	23,620	0
Transportation	67,894	104,854	67,894
Community and Regional Development	26,262	25,701	8,545**
Education, Training, Employment, and Social Services	97,555	106,172	0
Health (excluding Medicare)	250,548	373,774	250,548
Medicare	298,638	492,316	492,316
Income Security	345,847	554,332	226,554***
Social Security	523,305	767,019	767,019
Veterans Benefits and Services	70,120	124,659	69,811
Admin. of Justice	40,019	58,696	23,770****
General Government	16,997	31,149	16,997
Net Interest	183,986	241,598	241,598
Allowances	0	6,566	0
Undistributed Offsetting Receipts	-65,224	-99,635	-99,635
Total Outlays	2,471,957	3,728,686	2,638,925

*2005 level, but without foreign aid

**Disaster relief only

***Retirement, disability and unemployment only

****Retains prison spending, cuts other justice funding in half

The above budget is in rough balance. It would not increase debt, so the debt ceiling would not have to be raised or violated. It would also preserve the core functions of the federal government, and then some. Note some key features:

• Net interest is paid in full. No default.
• Social Security and Medicare are completely covered.
• Federal retirement and disability programs would also be fully funded.
• The men and women of the military would continue getting paid in full.
• Federal prisons and correctional facilities would continue to operate.
• Funds for disaster relief are preserved.
• General government would be funded enough to keep operating. That includes the courts, legislative functions, the executive branch, and foreign affairs.
• There is still funding for infrastructure, science, agriculture, etc.

Clearly it is possible to go a whole year without raising the debt limit and without creating any kind of economic crisis. No one is saying this is the best approach only that it could be done.

Now let’s look at our other questions: is Obama bluffing or would he really do the unthinkable and allow our country to default and stop Social Security checks from going out? I suppose the answer lays in whether or not Obama believes the American people are stupid enough to believe his lie. He has, after all, a lot of history on his side. The American people have been buying into the liberal lies for a long time.

So, how should the Republicans play their hand? That, I suppose, depends on if the Republicans believe that since the “Great Awakening” of 2008, they have the ability to sell the American people the truth. Last night I reported on Sen. McConnell’s plan to just let the President do whatever he wants with the debt ceiling, which would allow the Republicans to put all the blame for raising the debt on Obama. A few minutes ago I received a comment on that post from  John Galt of the Robbing America blog. John makes a very solid argument for supporting McConnell’s plan. The gist of John’s argument is that sometimes in battle the best strategy is to retreat and regroup to fight another day. He is right, in tha, there are times when this is the best strategy. However, history has shown that there are times in battle when you are grossly out numbered by the enemy, the best thing to is to go on the attack. The Republicans and each of us conservatives must decide where we fall on these questions.

Personally, I believe that Obama is capable of doing the unthinkable. But I also believe that Americans are ready to hear and accept the truth. As i said in the title, this is high stakes poker.

Well, that’s wat I’m thinking. What are your thoughts?