November 7, 2012 _ Romney Wins By A Landslide!

In the interest of sanity, I felt compelled to find something up-lifting to write about today. In spite of the left stream Media’s consistent predictions of an Obama win in November, the reports of Romney’s political death are premature. I think it is not out of the realm of possibilities  that Mitt Romney will win by a landslide. A landslide to me would have Romney at 55%, Obama at 41%, and Gary Johnson at 4%. believe it or not, I have some support for being so optimistic.

A dear commenter here at CoF left a link to this Business Insider article that claims Romney has a big October surprise planned for President Obama.

This is what people are still not grasping about Romney: He’s about to open up the money floodgates in a way that Obama can’t match.

[…]

Both Romney and Obama have been fundraising consistently for months. But Romney has kept his head down and his account flush, and didn’t try to compete with the Olympics, the Conventions, or the recent mediocre press. He was competent enough to realize that the Obama campaign had to hemorrhage cash in order to maintain their numbers.

And now, he’s got a massive upper hand, which very few people are talking about. Once he and his surrogates carpet bomb the swing states with adverts, by shear mathematics Obama will take a small but predictable dive in the polls.  In the middle of October, Mitt starts looking like a contender again.

We conservatives know and accept that the media is in the tank for Obama and they are going to continue covering for his failures and try to convince voters that a Romney presidency would be a disaster for the middle class. Also, we tend to think that the polls claiming a very tight race or Obama ahead are intentionally biased toward Obama. But, maybe there is a different  explanation of the polls. This article at examiner.com reports on an organization called UnSkewedPolls. The folks at UnSewedPolls say that the companies doing the polling are using a 2008 model of the voter breakdown between Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. They claim that when these poll  results are unskewed to reflect today’s break down of voters, the results look very different.

While Mitt Romney enjoys a 47 percent to 46 percent lead over President Obama in theRasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Tracking Poll released today, he has taken a 7.8 percent lead in the UnSkewedPolls.com average of unskewed polls.

So, not as big a spread as I am predicting, But 7.8% is not too shabby. And, I have more supporting evidence of a big Romney win. A moth ago I bookmarked a John Hayward article at Human Events. He tells us about a couple of professor at the University of Colorado that have an amazing track record of predicting electoral college results.

Professors Ken Bickers and Michael Berry, of the University of Colorado, have a system for predicting the Electoral College outcomes of presidential races.  Their model has accurately forecast the winner of every presidential race since 1980.  According to an article published by UC-Boulder, they even got the Perot-flavored election of 1992, and the Bush-Gore photo finish in 2000, right.

This year, the Bickers-Berry model shows Mitt Romney winning with 320 electoral votes to Obama’s 218, with a 20-vote margin of error.  A popular vote margin of 53-47 percent in Romney’s favor is predicted.

I could live with those results! And then there is this article at American Thinker that may help explain why Obama is going to lose big time.

When Barack Obama suddenly changed his position on gay marriage, many people (including me) predicted that this could have a dampening effect on black turnout, because many black churches take their Scripture quite seriously.  It might be too much to expect black pastors to urge their flocks to vote for a Republican (and Mormon) candidate, but staying home and not voting might well be an option to protest the discarding of a bedrock tenet of faith.

The Associated Press is now reporting that this scenario may indeed be developing:

So, cheer up, folks. Obama is toast! I am so up beat that tomorrow I am going to be so bold as to offer some advice to President Romney. and, here is a suggestion for you, dear friends. Share a little fruitcake with Jimmy Buffett.  It’ll make you feel better.

Well, now you know what I’m thinking. What are your thoughts?

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37 thoughts on “November 7, 2012 _ Romney Wins By A Landslide!

  1. The polls are skewed and designed to prevent the populace from noticing that the emperor has no clothes.

    Also, remember 1980. The press then kept saying it was too close to call. And if I remember correctly Reagan won by a pretty dominant margin that year.

  2. The press is screaming that it’s over for Romney because they want it to be. They are trying to drive public opinion. This sign of desperation is itself an encouraging sign for Romney. Were he losing heroically as a good Republican should, they’d be lauding him and lionizing him as they did McCain, and Bob Dole before him.

    The other encouraging thing is that Obama’s 53% in 2008 was his high water mark. There is no way he’ll get that this time around. So he has nowhere to go but down, and a crappy record of no accomplishments.

    Thanks for the optimistic post!

    1. Kurt, when they start screaming, we know they are in trouble. That anyone buys any of their rags anymore or listens to what they are saying is amazing.

  3. Ta-Dha!…I have been predicting a Romney romp for sometime now…I have been basing it on MY GUT…and your same information that pollsters are using ’08’ models [which ain’t gonna’ be duplicated]…I have been mirroring this election with 1980…Reagan was being portrayed my the then lame-stream-media… as…too old…a dithering dolt…a crazy warmonger with his finger on the nuke button…and on it went…behind in ‘the polls’ going into the week of the election…and…Ta-Dha!…we know how that turned out!

    As you noted regarding Romney and his campaign cash…he has been keeping it close to the vest…ready to unleash it on a electorate that Mitt knows doesn’t pay attention [really] until the debates start…SMART bidness man!…

    ALL ABOARD THE R & R TRAIN TO WASHINGTON!!

    PLU from SSF

  4. I totally agree with the assessment of the methodology that is being use by the polls today. They themselves have recognized such bias by accepting that they contain a higher weight of democratic register voters.
    I also agree, and have pointed that out before, that the Romney campaign is calculating the right “timing” for their expenses.
    Those two factors are in Romney’s favor. The third factor remains to be decided: the 3 debates. There is a high chance that there won’t be a definitive clear winner, in which case the first two factors become prominent.
    But there is still an “October surprise” coming that is distinct from all of this.

  5. Jim, we know how the polls get the “spin” on them, SO I tend to believe that Romney is doing better than we think. I also think that he is holding back while there is so much else going on in the news. Maybe he believes that this Embassy disaster might just make an impression on some of the minds that think Obama is a great president. Maybe he thinks they will open their eyes and see he is in over his head and maybe that might change their vote. Who knows. We are only told what the media/WH (same thing) wants us to know. The fact that Rice and Carney came out with the fact that this whole thing was just spur of the moment and not planned makes them unbelievable from now on…now they have egg on their faces, because even some of the media is crying foul on this one. In other words, they lied to us with a straight face, I would think that MIGHT change someones opinion.

    1. lou222, they have been lying to us “with a straight face” for four years, and it is still 47-47 in the polls. Now, I wonder what those 47% are thinking, the ones in the polls; probably the same as those 47% that Romney talked about – because they are exactly the same people.
      (Sorry Jim, I beat you to this “reply”)

    2. Fox News has a headline up that says the White House finally agrees that the attacks on our embassy in Libya was a terrorist attack.That is a lot of egg they have on their faces. Any patriots that were thinking of voting for Obama have to be rethinking what they are going to do.

      1. Don’t think there are any “Patriots” thinking of voting for Obama. I hope you are right, Jim! I do think, though, that when Nov. 7 rolls around and all of these polls are proven wrong, there will be riots and a whole lotta shak’n going on.

  6. I woke up yesterday to the news of that NBC/WSJ poll that put O at 50 In Virginia. I thought, “O, please, not another one of those polls that give Dems double digit advantage”. And of course it was. And note, Obama didn’t get a bump from that double secret fundraiser tape.

  7. I can’t express how much I hope you are right on this, Jim. I do think the methodology used by Unskewed Polls may be a little questionable, but it still gives us reason for hope. I do not drink anything stronger than a Coke, but trust me, the Jackson house will be celebrating in their own way, if Romney pulls this off.

    1. Well, stock up on the Coke, Larry. You all backin the states are more in touch with how people are feeling about this president. But, I would think they are less happy now than they were in 2010. If that is true, then the UnSkewed estimates may not be all that far off.

  8. Well, I don’t want to be a wet blanket, but in my heart of hearts, I really thought the U.S. supreme Court would declare obamacare unconstitutional.

    Then we found that John Roberts is easily intimidated. Embarrassingly easy. He is not a real man.

    I can’t imagine anyone being sufficiently stupid to vote for obama; but I have contacts with liberals on Facebook, and yes, they really are that stupid.

    So I pray that GOD will intervene and turn on enough lights so that we can defeat obama, who is a fascist totalitarian. And a muslim.

    1. Hi, P-H. Thanks for stopping by. Yes, Chief Justice Roberts is a real disappointment. Many of our young people today think entitlements are their right. Yet, I habg on to the hope that enough people have woken up to the fact that this country can not continue on the path of the last decades. They showed their ire in the mid-term elections and I want to believe that ire has grown since then. If not, our coutry is truly lost. Your prayer will be heard, PH. I believe that.

  9. Officially, a landslide is above 60%, so Romney will not be in that territory, but he is looking much better than people believe. In all likelihood, the vote for POTUS will most closely correlate with party registration (see http://datechguyblog.com/2012/09/17/demoralized-as-hell-the-poll-the-media-isnt-talking-about-edition) and the overall vote for the US House in the 2010 mid-term (see http://www.american.com/archive/2011/july/what-the-popular-vote-for-the-house-tells-us). Both of these factors favor the GOP candidate. Both are also at the heart of questions as to the current polls. For Obama to really be doing this well, he would have to had done something game changing, and Romney would have to be screwing up royally. However, the Obama administration looks like it is circling the drain on all fronts, and while Romney is not a great candidate, he is not a screw up either. The polls are simply wrong. The advantage is with Romney.

  10. I do believe Romney could win by a landslide, too. However, he needs to come out swinging every single day. The Obama campaign just started airing new, much better ads, in Virginia. It’s full of holes as it says Americans are better off today than when Obama took office–but that is par for the Dems. Repeat lies often enough and loud enough and the public will think they are facts.

  11. I’m not at all sure a Romney victory would be a “Win” for America. It’s more akin to living with a persistent ailment than dying from it. Still, I’ll take the sickness over the death anytime. So, “Go Mitt!” Because if I stop coughing it might be because I’m not breathing anymore.

    Great article.

    1. We didn’t get the small constitutionally limited government candidate we wanted, did we?
      Grant, you are the first libertarian I know that recognizes that Obama has to go. I want you to know that I appreciate it. If a Romney administration can put us back on track pointed in the RIGHT direction, that will be a start.

      1. I’d settle for him just being able to stanch the bleeding until we can toss his ass out and replace him with someone who understands the proper role of government in a free society. I’m not confident that can happen, but I’ve been wrong more than I care to admit.
        The alternative (Obama) is an unmitigated catastrophe.

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