The Iran Nuke Accord _ Is There A Silver Lining?

Well, Dumb and Dumber have done it again; first with Syria and now with Iran.

With Syria, Dumb drew his red-line in the sand with disappearing ink. Then Dumber made an off-the-cuff remark and Russian President Putin made both of them eat those words. Although we don’t like seeing our President and Secretary of State made fools of by the Russian President, they are fools and the world is very much aware of that fact. The end result, however, was that Dumb and Dumber were prevented from embroiling America in the Syrian civil war and that is a good thing. Is it possible that the “Swiss Cheese” agreement that Dumb and Dumber just agreed to with Iran over their development of nuclear arms will accidentally have some positive out comes? It’s a long-shot but it is possible and I will get to that in a moment. First, a few words about Iran’s intentions and what this silly agreement means for Israel and Saudi Arabia and some other countries in the region.

Iran’s Intentions

Only fools like Dumb and Dumber could believe that Iran is enriching uranium for the sole peaceful purpose of developing nuclear energy for their country. Victor Davis Hanson asks the obvious question that neither Dumb and Dumber or the main stream media have been willing to ask:

...why would a nation with among the world’s largest reserves of gas and oil feel the need to fund an expensive nuclear energy program in the first place?

The answer, of course, is they don’t need nuclear energy. Iran wants nuclear weapons and no piece of paper is going to stop them. They will not stop their uranium enrichment program until they have nuclear war heads and missiles capable of delivering them. Would Iran use their nukes against Israel to wipe them off the face of the earth as they have often said? Maybe, but not necessarily. At the very least they would use their nuclear status to consolidate their influence over the Shite Crescent (Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon). This, of course, would be very bad for Israel because Hezbollah would become that much more powerful. It would also be against the interest of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the Emirates and any other Sunni dominated country in that region. Beside the Sunni vs Shite issue, there is the very lucrative issue of who controls the potential oil and gas pipeline routes through Iraq and Syria. Iran and Russia want to control those routes and the Saudis want to , at least, be major player over those routes. That is why the Saudis want to see Iran contained and why they would prefer to see the Sunnis come to power again in Iraq and why they want to see the Sunnis come to power in Syria, and, of course this is why the Saudis wanted the US to go to war in Syria.

It’s not just the Saudis who like the idea of the US fighting their wars for them. Israel, too, would prefer that the US would take out the Irani nuclear facilities. However, it is painfully clear to Israel that they can no longer count on support from Dumb and Dumber.

Will Israel Go It Alone?

I recall that about a year ago, when Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu was holding up his cartoon of a bomb while discussing the threat of a nuclear Iran, reading an article by a military analyst. The analyst had no doubt that the Israelis could easily handle the Irani air force. There was, however, a potentially fatal flaw in Israel taking on Iran alone. The analyst concluded that, because of the distance involved and time that would be  lost in dog-fights getting into position to drop their bombs, there was a high probability that the Israeli pilots would not have enough fuel to make it back home. If that is true, then despite Netanyahu’s bravado in the past, Israel going it alone would be very, very risky. So, might Israel, using the principle of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”, consider making a deal with Saudi Arabia?

Can Swiss Cheese Agreements Have A Silver Lining?

Clearly, both the Israelis and the Saudis see Iran as a dangerous enemy and the feeling is mutual from the Irani perspective. If the Saudis would allow Israel’s plane to refuel in Saudi Arabia and if the analyst was correct, then Israel could indeed stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Real Clear Politics has an article by David Ignatius of the Washington Post. The article is copyrighted so I will not be posting quotes from it. In his article, Ignatius makes a case that the deal made by Dumb and Dumber could lead to an alliance between Israel and Saudi Arabia and that could result in the deal having a silver lining. He goes so far as to suggest that such an alliance could result in Israel becoming the “protector” of the Sunni Arab nations and might even lead to the resolution of the Palestinian issue. Well……., I think Mr. Ignatius is reaching just a tad. That indeed would be a silver lining. Me? I would settle for a nickel-plated lining.

I personally hope that Israel and Saudi Arabia do form an alliance and that Israel puts an end to Iran’s dream of becoming a nuclear power. The world would be a safer place without a nuclear Iran. Of course the United States would lose its prestige and influence in the region. That would make President Dumb Obama happy. But, in the opinion of this humble observer, the way the US has used its influence for the last sixty years in the Middle East has not resulted in the kind of prestige our country should want.

Well, that’s what I’m thinking. What are your thoughts?

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16 thoughts on “The Iran Nuke Accord _ Is There A Silver Lining?

  1. The way I see it Obkerry has removed the possibility of a revolt against the Mullahs resulting from sanction induced depravation. Instead a new sense of national pride fostered by the Mullahs’ hog tying of Obama, Kerry and the west will emerge on the streets of Tehran. Obama will, with one fell swoop, accomplish in the middle east and Africa what the Soviet Union and China were unable to effect in Asia, The Domino Effect. Worse than the communism that has spread to the United States while skipping over Southeast Asia is the spreading of islamic states around the globe. Give the guy credit though. He is usurping the power of congress to have input in the decision making process of any national security considerations. Scandals be damned, before his next three years are up he should be able to finish us off at which point marshall law and his ascension to president for life will be, to quote Ralph Kramden, a mere bag of shells. But then, I’m an optimist.

      1. I still don’t believe that, Jim. Election fraud is the only explanation for 2012. There is no way he is in the WH legitimately. But like everything else, there are no prosecutions. No stones in Congress. Investigations…no prosecutions. The coup continues.

  2. I agree they don’t have nuclear reactors for fuel, although they would be smart to use that for domestic purposes and make money off the oil from all the countries too afraid to use nuclear power. As for alliances with Saudi Arabia — when you dine with the devil use a long spoon. The sheikhs of Araby have very dirty deals themselves with the people out to get us and are responsible for a lot of harm in places like Russia, where the terrorists have deliberately targeted children. Israel will do what it needs to do; it will use whatever allies are available. But it may come to that because Iran wants nuclear weapons and it will get them.

  3. Victor Davis Hansen asked an obvious question. I would ask another.

    Why would Iran, a country that has endured sanctions nearly continuously since 1979 at an virtually incalculable cost, simply barter away its nuclear weapon ambitions with the finish line in reach?

    Answer, they already have the bomb or the capability to build it as needed. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain by signing the dumb and dumber accord.

    In other words, any Israel/Saudi partnership is moot as far as preventing Iran from going nuclear.

    Saudi Arabia is Iran’s ultimate target anyway, not Israel. If Israel were to end the Jew/Arab conflict tomorrow in Palestine, it would change nothing as far as Iran/Saudi Arabia is concerned.

    Fact is I’m sure Obama would prefer Israel to return to its pre-1967 borders. He knows Bibi will never negotiate that away so his next best option is to empower Iran.

    Really should surprise no one with a muslim in the White House. Let’s not forget the influence of Valerie Jarrett.

    Yes, I know this makes me a raaacist!

    1. If Iran already has the capability to build a bomb, that means Mossad is as screwed up as the CIA. We will know soon enough.
      Let’s see Barry was raised Muslim for his first ten or twelve years, Valerie was born in Iran, and Kerry’s daughter-in-law is from Iran. Hmmm!

  4. Great post Jim. There is no doubt in my mind that when push comes to shove Saudi Arabia and Israel will do what needs to be done. After this happens the US will condemn the actions of Israel and it is possible that WWIII will break out. A silver lining would be these two countries stopping Iran from getting the bomb but at what price will it be?

  5. Here’s what I’ve been thinking about the past few days….

    Until this deal with Iran, everything that Obama did with regard to Middle East policy was geared toward supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. So why has he done something which seems to empower Iran, which is hostile toward the Muslim Brotherhood?

  6. Am amazed at Mr. Ignatius’ hypothesis and cheered by it. Amazed because he’s such a leftwinger and cheered because it’s hopeful. Wouldn’t we all love to see Iran quaking in its boots for a change? Still, I don’t think Israel would cozy up with Saudi Arabia.

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