Wall Street’s Exuberance Going Into 2015. Is It Misplaced?

Look at this CNBC headline from this morning.

Why the US will power the world economy in 2015

Note that the headline is a statement and not a question. Now look at the Bovine Droppings (BD) the author offers to support his assertion:

Six years after its financial system nearly sank and nearly that long since the recession ended, the United States is expected to grow in 2015 at its fastest pace in a decade. Its expansion from July through September—a 5 percent annual rate—was the swiftest for any quarter since 2003.

That pace will likely ease a bit. Still, the economy is expected to expand 3.1 percent next year, according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics. It would be the first year of 3 percent growth since 2005.

{…}

What’s more, Americans’ finances are in firmer shape. Job growth is accelerating. Businesses are investing in buildings and software, and home building is expected to pick up.

Lower oil prices will also help Europe and Japan, and the global economy should expand faster than it did this year, economists say. But the divergence between the United States and most of the rest of the world is striking and carries some risks. Big exporters, from China to Germany to Japan, will depend heavily on a recovering U.S. to boost their economies.

This author, my friends, is what your humble observer of the asylum we all have to live in calls a Wall Street cheerleader. These cheerleaders have come to believe that the stock markets and the economy are the same thing. THEY ARE NOT! The stock market has had nothing to do with reality since 2008. Stocks have not responded to real market forces. They have responded to the Federal Reserve’s policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) and the Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP).

In spite of what we are being told by our government, the real economy did not have a 5% increase in GDP in the Third Quarter. That is a totally manipulated number that includes three quarters of health care spending (mostly ObamaCare) dumped into one quarter. And further more, anyone who thinks the employment picture in the US is good, has their head stuck in a very dark and smelly place.

I don’t pretend to be an economists or any kind of financial expert, but I can read and I know that these Wall Street cheerleaders have access to the same information that I have. So, they know or should know, for example, that Japan’s economy is collapsing, the European Union is entering the land of “deflation”, commodities other than oil; like copper and iron, are also falling in price (deflation), the collapsing oil prices, although good for the consumer, are bad for others. There is an index that historically has been very good at indicating the direction of the world’s economy. It’s called the Baltic Dry Index and measures the activity container ships moving goods around the world. It has been falling like a rock for the last two months. Maybe these cheerleaders  should read Zero Hedge. They might take note of these three headlines:

China Leading Index Plunges To Worst Since Feb 2009 Sending Yuan To Lower Trading Band Extreme

and

Faith In Abenomics Falters: Foreign Investor Flows Collapse 94% In 2014

and

2015 World GDP Expectations Just Collapsed

Is it any wonder that the masses are so poorly informed. Then when the smelly stuff hits the proverbial fan, we will be told it was totally unexpected. So, folks, 2015 is on the way. Keep an eye out for what our illustrious President calls those Bumps In The Road. There could be some real doozies.

Well, that’s what I’m thinking. What are your thoughts?

 

 

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6 thoughts on “Wall Street’s Exuberance Going Into 2015. Is It Misplaced?

  1. Smoke and mirrors and outright lies is what passes as the USG today. The mythology of the invincible Good Fairy (America) is dragging us into global war, but let us celebrate the latest false statistics.

  2. I remember when Bush was president and the stock market was booming that liberals attacked it because Bush was taking care of his Wall Street buddies. They claimed this was not proof the economy was good. Now that Obama is president and the stock market is doing well the liberals have changed course and are claiming this is proof the economy is getting better.
    In addition the libs also claimed gas prices were low when Obama took office because the economy was bad but now they are claiming lower gas prices are proof the economy is better. Unbelievable!

  3. You’re right the stock market is not a accurate reflection of the economy, but the Fed is only a small part of that. Free Trade, and global commerce in general, has far, far more to do with it.

    JMJ

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