Einstein is credited with saying that insanity is doing the samething over and over and expecting different results. Americans have demonstrated their insanity for at least the last 100 years. We keep electing either Republicans or Democrats to run our Federal government and we keep getting the same results. Both political parties are statist in their nature so how can we expect to get different results. There have been boom periods under Republican leadership (think Ronald Reagan) and there have been booms under Democrat leadership Think Bill Clinton); but under both there was growth of the central government for which we latter suffered the consequences. We are stuck in a two political party paradigm and I’m wondering is it time to break that paradigm?
Do I think America is ready to elect a third party president? No, I don’t. But I am thinking that in four or five years we might be ready. I think Americans are going to need a more serious shock than they received in 2008 before they will finally be ready to consider something completely different, something completely radical, something as radical as returning to the constitutional form of government envisioned by our Founders. Yes, today that would be considered radical.
The shock that could set the stage for a major paradigm shift in America is on the way. I’m talking, of course, of the European credit bubble which could deflate at any moment . In spite of what we here from the political elite and the central banks, the European credit bubble will deflate and, in my opinion, it will happen within the four or five years that I refered to in the above paragraph. If I were a betting man, I would say it is going to happen within the next two years. And here’s the thing. Which ever party holds the presidency when the shock wave hits, will get the blame. That’s just the way it is. So, what I am saying is this. Even if the Republicans win big in 2012 and even if they institute some changes that have beneficial effects for the economy, when the shock wave hits all of that will be wiped out and the Republicans will get the blame.
So, what will the American voters do? They will be looking for another option. The memory, in my opinion, of the Obama years will still be fresh in their minds so they will not really want to go the Democrat party route. But, what other option will they have? I can see the hands up and waving of all my Libertarian friends. Yes, you do have an established third party and maybe this will be your time or maybe not. It is possible that just because the Libertarian Party has been around in the shadows for a long time will be reason for the voters to paint Libertarians with the same brush as they do the Republicans and the Democrats. In other words, the Libertarians aren’t new and the American voter will be looking for something “new”.
The Libertarians have one strong argument in favor of them being the vessel for a serious third-party movement. It takes a lot of time and money to set-up a nation-wide party. But, would constitutional conservatives be willing to over look their differences with libertarian thought and join forces under the Libertarian banner?
Another option would be for the Tea Party movement to reconsider their vow not to become a political party. Or, maybe, in spite of the cost and time, the Tea party movement and the Libertarians should consider coming together and forming a new political party with a new name all together.Or, we can accept that insanity is here to stay.
Well, that’s what I’m thinking. What are your thoughts?
Asylum Watch 
“The only answer, as I see it, it to take vast extra-constitutional functions away from the federal government and return them to the states and the people. I know, I know… Dream on…”
Not necessarily a dream, Kurt. My friend 5etester at Spellchek* has what I think is a marvellous plan but it will take some political party to stand on it as their platform. IMO, it couldn’t be the either of the two major parties we currently have. My point today is that if the European credit bubble pops after the voters have put Romney or Gingrich in office, they might then be ready in a big way for a third party (this would virtually destroy the Republican Party). If the bubble pops before the elections, my guess is that the voters will elect Romney or Gingrich and America will be screwed for a long time to come.
* http://spellchek.wordpress.com/2011/11/09/the-best-tax-plan-ever/
Kurt
I don’t know what happened to you comment. When I posted my reply it replaced your comment. WordPress has been giving me fits today, but this is really strange.
You presently have a Republican candidate for president that believes strongly on “state rights” – Rick Perry.
Now we’re talking, Jim!
Here’s my take on it.
http://ecc102.wordpress.com/2011/09/15/the-third-party-scare/
The time for a third party may be getting closer, my friend
Jim, you know where my solution is headed and silverfiddle just hit on it above. Alternative parties and redistribution of power still keeps the federal government behemoth too strong. The only way to wrangle power away is to starve their fuel source meaning the money.
Don’t forget about the Iran war that’s queued up right now. The subsequent energy price spike will finish off the EU collapse. Your timetable may end up much sooner rather than later.
I know where you want to go, my friend, and I’d like to be ridding shotgun with you on that trip. But, I don’t see how we get there with out the vessel of a political party. I think the European credit bubble will pop before The Powers That Be can get their war organized. But, who knows.
I think that Libertarians are actually “newer” than you think for most Americans. The average American is not into politics near as much as those of us who blog on it. I usually get phone calls the day before election day asking me who they should vote for.
But it would be a humongous challenge for the reason Silverfiddle stated, the dreaded Ross Perot effect.
Until recently I was an advocate of Tea Party conservatives and Libertarians hijacking the Republican Party. I no longer think that is going to happen.
I believe we are still not ready for a third party but I believe we will be reaching that point shortly as well. People on both sides are getting fed up and I do think that they will start to look elsewhere soon; I know that I am.
Business as usual isn’t going to cut it any more, is it, Steve? I think events are going to over take us and we will either wake up or we won’t. I know that I am fed up with the Republicans.
I’m not so sure it’s a viable option, but I wish we could just regain control of the Republican Party. The infrastructure is already in place, we just need to get the right people controlling the infrastructure.
Until recently, I felt the same way as you, Larry. Now I think it is going to take a grass-root action and we will probably have to face another financial disaster before it will happen, if it happens at all.
Advisory: This comment is not with the purpose of arguing pro or against
the wisdom or foolishness of a “third Party”. It is ONLY for the purpose of setting
the parameters that those that want a third party should be addressing.
Those that are pushing for a third party are putting the cart in front of the horse.
For the existence (“existence” with a meaningful capacity to capture a majority or a plurality of the general vote) of a third party in the United States is necessary to first change the political structure as designed by the Founding Fathers and as developed further with time. The electoral system in the US is a “winner-take-all” system. (Derived from the “pass-the-booth system of England).
In comparison, the electoral systems of the majority of European nations, where third parties thrive, is a “proportional-representation” one. The big difference is that under a “proportional representation” system third parties are not only possible but practically unavoidable. Under a “pass-the-booth” system, third parties are highly unlikely and have the odds heavily against them. The “pass-the-booth system characterizes itself for political stability. The “proportional
representation” characterizes itself for political in-stability.
For Libertarians or any other groups endorsing the idea of a third party to advance their cause they must first of all work towards changing the electoral system of the US from “pass-the-booth” to “proportional representation”.
They would never succeed with the odds on the present system so heavily against them.
Bingo. John Galt has nailed the problem. To become viable, an official Libertarian Party would have to get more votes than the Dems and the Repubs. But since Repub types are the ones more likely to defect for the Libertarian Party, they both end up losing to Dems.
Three (or more) party dynamics are not do-able here. Heaven knows we don’t want that wacky multiparty “coalition gov’t” type finagling necessary in the UK.
Now, here’s what I see as more probable: The Republican Party dies and gets replaced by Tea/Libertarian, just as the GOP once replaced the Whigs. The trouble is just as you state, though, CoF: this kind of change might not be possible until the nation hits rock bottom. Like an addict, really.
cheers!
Linda
There could never be a coalition government, Linda, due to our constitution. Please see my reply to John Galt.
Under the scenario I laid out, I think the Republican Party would become insignificant. Also, if there is no majority of electoral votes, the House votes one vote per state until there is a majority of at least 26. Not the end of the world.
Exactly right, Jim, and the House is now being elected under the “pass the booth” electoral system making it highly unlikely that it would be dominated by a third party (the same goes for the Senate).
The only way a third party could succeed is to replace one or more of the two major parties. If history is a guide, this can really only happen if one of the major parties commits suicide and then another party is build upon its ashes. Then we will have a situation like the Whig Party dying and making way for the Republicans, or (in Canada) the Progressive Conservative Party dying and making way for the Reform Party (the current Conservative Alliance). My own belief is that the GOP may not survive past this next election. If Obama wins, or if a GOP candidate wins but Washington continues business as usual, then the GOP may well be toast.
I agree with your assessment, John. One blogger/philosopher that I have recently begun to follow, believes that the economic train has already gone off the cliff and that it could take months or even a couple of years to hit the bottom of the abyss. I am inclined to agree with him. Our economy will crash in the near future. Maybe then the majority of Americans will be willing to support a new political party that is centered on the original constitution.
I share the same sentiments as J.G. and have wondered the same. Join forces and stand up to this rigged game. (Has anyone seen who’s on the Bilderburg’s list this past year?). The only candidate who’s truly for states rights, and has not been bought, is Ron Paul. My only worry ,with your train of thought, is that this country DOES NOT have 4 or 5 yrs. This is ENDGAME if the status quo gets another term.
Will anyone (everyone),in this Republic, say a prayer for Ron Paul’s safety in 2012? Seems the only hope for salvation for both.